FORECAST EDGE
A forecast only earns trust where it disagrees with the dumb baseline — a random walk with drift, built from the same window the model saw. Agreement adds nothing to bet on; divergence is the model's actual call.
NAMES FORECAST
5
CONTRARIAN TO DRIFT
5
WIDEST DIVERGENCE
KBANK
NAMEKRONOSDRIFTEDGECALL
KBANK-25.6%+5.7%-31.3%fights trend
SCB-14.5%+8.6%-23.1%fights trend
PTT-18.8%+3.1%-21.9%fights trend
BBL-14.9%+2.7%-17.6%fights trend
ADVANC+3.3%-4.0%+7.3%fights trend
THE REPORT CARD · FORECASTS GRADED ON WHAT HAPPENED
Every forecast is logged the day it is made and graded the day its horizon arrives. The 2026-06-24 exam is in: the model went 8 for 24 on direction, and beat the dumb drift baseline 1 times. A famous model is not a right model — that is the whole lesson of this page.
NAMEKRONOSDRIFTREALITYGRADE
SET-10.3%+5.4%-0.1%hit
PTT-9.0%+1.2%+7.5%miss
KBANK-11.9%+3.9%+15.3%miss
ADVANC-10.0%-2.1%+4.2%miss
SCB-7.2%+7.6%+8.2%miss
BBL-8.7%+7.2%+7.2%miss
SET-15.9%+3.3%-2.3%hit
PTT-14.5%-2.1%+8.5%miss
KBANK-26.3%+7.3%+1.2%miss
ADVANC-9.9%+0.5%-5.9%hit
SCB-16.0%-5.1%-0.7%hit
BBL-17.0%-8.5%+0.0%miss
SET-15.7%+0.6%+0.1%miss
PTT-15.5%+8.8%+3.1%miss
KBANK-27.0%+3.4%+0.0%miss
ADVANC-6.6%-1.9%-3.9%hit
SCB-14.6%+0.6%+1.3%miss
BBL-15.5%-1.2%+1.0%miss
SET-15.7%+1.0%-0.8%hit
PTT-15.1%+6.7%+7.4%miss
KBANK-27.7%+4.8%-1.6%hit
ADVANC-5.1%-2.9%-3.1%hit
SCB-13.7%+1.1%+2.0%miss
BBL-16.4%+1.4%+0.0%miss
graded 2026-06-24 → 2026-07-23 · today's forecast above is on record the same way — next grading ~2026-10-24 · we publish the misses